Hercle · EMEA Institutional, Book B

Spread / volume simulator — five priority accounts

Baseline: Q2 2026 (Apr–Jun) run-rate, annualised · all figures EUR Source: Hercle_SAM_Case_Portfolio_Data (Marina's V).xlsx · 18 accounts, 5 modelled · v1.0, 24 Jul 2026
Five accounts — modelled
baseline €12,220,000
Change
Book total — modelled
baseline €21,102,400
Other 13 accounts
€8,882,400
held constant
Account Share of wallet Blended spread Volume € m Revenue € / year Δ vs baseline
Five accounts

How this is calculated

Revenue = volume × spread. Volume = the client's total flow × the share of it we hold. The client's total flow is held constant.

Baseline is the Q2 run-rate, annualised (Apr–Jun × 4).

The ceiling is the researched maximum share one provider can hold for that client archetype.

The grey line under each spread reads the price move on its own: cut the spread by X and the account has to send Y% more volume to earn what it earns today. Raise the spread and it can send less.

Not modelled — and what would change that

Product / asset mix. The book carries one blended spread per account with no split by product, so a cross-sell figure would be assumption rather than analysis. Would need revenue broken out by product.

Client response to price. Nothing in the book records what happened the last time pricing moved. Would need win/loss history on quoted pricing.

Cost to serve. Not in the data; support tickets are the only proxy available. Would need cost allocated per account.

Volume needed to offset a spread cut

Accountbps−1−2−3−4